CD NOTES / Play Scenario

  1. Flirting with Oblivion

    Chain Drain interviewee Brad Hargreaves writes on LinkedIn about a surprising takeaway, after attending the Blueprint conference:

    There’s serious appetite for M\&A in proptech right now… It felt like every other company I sat down with was looking to buy startups. And it wasn’t just the big PE groups, either. Plenty of them were operating companies looking to make strategic acquisitions that plug into what they already do.

    These weren’t dumpster divers hunting for cheap acquihires of overfunded, underperforming companies….
    As far as I can tell, there’s one reason for this: data moats.

    Everyone has figured out that features aren’t a defensible moat in a world where AI can build them for you… It’s data that the frontier models don’t have: construction projects and bidding, maintenance requests and tenant complaints, building systems breakdowns, leasing inquiries and tour bookings.

    All the data cruft these unprofitable startups have been generating for years is now gold, and the incumbents are willing to pay real money for it.

    Not 24 hours after Greg texted me about this, I saw an ad on Instagram for Nyne.ai promising exactly that: “6-figure payouts” for data from firms with 20+ W-2s. *BB-9/29/26

  2. Rewarding “Human Skills” is a Very Play Scenario Thing to Do

    Large consultancy firm Ernst & Young is giving bonuses to employees “who show skills like adaptability, innovation and judgment,” according to Wall Street Journal (as well as experimentation with AI). This reads like the big consulting version of what we describe in the Play scenario, with AECO firms investing in the skills needed to build strong relationships with a dwindling pool of clients and potential clients. *BB-9/6/26

  3. One Giant LEAP Into the Known

    Speaking to an invitation-only crowd of global investors, founders, and assorted hangers-on on the eve of LEAP — the Gulf’s (if not the world’s) largest tech conference — HUMAIN CEO Tareq Amin had a message for attendees hailing from the anglosphere. “For our guests from America, Canada, and Australia, how long do you think it took us to get the permitting” for the Saudi AI champion’s data centers currently under construction in Riyadh and Dammam? According to The New York Times, “the company expects to deploy a total of 250 megawatts of power to its data centers by the start of 2027 and has a goal of supplying six gigawatts of power by 2034. The total project is estimated to cost \$77 billion.”

    The answer, Amin triumphantly announced, was “One week.” In the U.S., the average time elapsed for large infrastructure projects is 4.5 years. That, in a nutshell, is the Play scenario in action, as intractable delays, geopolitical barriers, and too much money chasing too little infrastructure lead AECO firms to follow said money and build where they can — especially as America’s data center backlash continues to build. *GL-9/4/26

  4. Survey of Architecture Firms Using AI

    Design blog Dezeen asked 53 leading architecture studios about their use of AI. 26 (49%) replied, one saying that they do not allow it and 25 (47%) actively encouraging it. There’s a split between those that are being proactive by building their own tools and those that are letting it wash over them:

    A key trend emerging alongside the use of these AI tools is the development of in-house AI systems, favoured for their personalisation and data privacy. More than half of the studios that told us they are using AI have created in-house systems, including Foster + Partners, Hassell, Heatherwick Studio, MVRDV, OMA and Gensler. Notably, despite enthusiastic adoption of AI at many studios, only 19 confirmed that they have established AI policies.

    If we had done the survey, we would have asked where the AI leadership is located within these firms: with the CEO, head of IT, a digital team, or some other office? The answer to that says a lot about how an organization is relating to the emergent changes around them. *BB-9/2/26

  5. Respect My (Land Use) Authority!

    More than 500 bills introduced in 40 states last year contained clauses pre-empting county land-use authority, according to an analysis by the National Association of Counties, reports Smart Cities Dive. A large minority (38%) explicitly aimed to curtail local control in order to streamline permitting, allow accessory dwelling units (which comprised nearly 40% of all new housing in California last year) or ease parking requirements.

    In the paper, we identified fragmented local, state, and federal regulation as a significant obstacle to the built environment sector’s achieving the economies of scale seen in software or manufacturing. While county officials might be alarmed at state legislatures’ efforts at pre-emption — although less than a third of those 500 bills passed — more harmonized regulations are a welcome development.

    “Often, the problem is a failure to modernize and keep up with the changing times we live in,” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said while proposing a statewide zoning measure earlier this year. “It all adds up to bureaucratic red tape that unnecessarily increases costs, delays construction and frequently kills projects altogether.” *GL-8/27/26